Here we go again. An end of year message without a clue as to what the next year holds. A year ago I signed off with ‘see you for real next year’. If only 2021 had facilitated rather than frustrated that ambition.
So, what reflections on the year just ending? First the terrible impact of COVID. The official death toll is something close to 6 million. The Economist’s single best estimate for excess deaths (to
mid-November)
was 18.4 million. Translating that into impact on partners, children, parents, friends, colleagues, communities, and countries is horrific and beyond my imagination. My condolences to everyone affected.
The problems of the legal market are small fry.
But that does not mean that we should not care about them. Legal services continue to change lives, provide foundations for income growth and even wealth, and they can help make our businesses and economies function properly. Yet the poorest and most vulnerable in our rich societies have limited access to legal services. Ordinary citizens see lawyers, their processes and costs as disproportionate to many issues. Small businesses struggle to get legal services that are predictably priced, relevant and accessible. And large and global corporations are shifting work away from law firms because of a lack of innovation.
Meanwhile the Rule of Law has been under attack across the UK and US. The legal market really does matter.
Reform remains too slow. California seems to be going backwards. Scotland wants consensus. The fact that power sits with lawyers – giving small cohorts of established law firm owners the power and influence to prevent reform – is a recipe for stasis. I can’t think of a single industry where those with monopoly control over production have chosen to give that up and embrace competition. Luckily in some places such as England & Wales, Arizona, Utah, Florida and Michigan there is the leadership and institutional architecture to make change happen.
Despite all of this, heading towards 2022, I am optimistic. It is the optimism borne of meeting so many lawyers, entrepreneurs, founders, businesspeople, investors, and agitators that are making change happen. They are not waiting for regulatory reform, nor for permission. They are creating new business models that bypass restrictions and deliver for clients. Customers are voting with their feet, pounds and dollars. They are choosing new types of provider across the legal market.
I urge those that doubt this to look in detail at these businesses, some of whom are my clients and some I just admire. They are all trying to do new things. Some are now huge businesses and some still at the early stage of developments. But bad regulation isn’t stopping them even if it inhibits pace and makes things more complex than it should.
Too many will not be able to spot the innovation in these businesses or will see the business only through the lens of their own practice. The lesson for regulators around the world is simple: reform or become irrelevant. The history of guilds should drive reform if only for reasons of self-preservation. To do otherwise is to condemn the people they claim to represent to a gradual erosion of their position at the centre of the legal market, the collapse of their monopoly and the emergence of new markets that simply bypass the economic restrictions that regulators put in place. None of that is to suggest altering rules that are genuinely about ethics.
2022 will see further steady progress, setbacks and perhaps some breakthroughs. I do believe in revolutions, but I remember that the industrial revolution took something like half a century. The flow of capital into the US and UK legal markets is now irreversible and it is directly linked to new people with new ideas and new business models that customers seem to appreciate.
So, let’s all keep going in 2022. Thank you to everyone that I collaborate with, to all my clients, colleagues and friends that make work such fun and consulting a challenging new career. Law matters and while it cannot solve COVID it can make a difference on relevant issues. And that is why in 2022 I will continue to bang on about reform.
I don’t do paper Christmas Cards – to be honest I never did – but I have made a donation to Shelter in lieu and will continue to give 5% of my profits to charity. For 2021 profits will go to my old Law Centre in Coventry where the use of law to change people’s lives is real. I haven’t decided on my charity for 2022 so tweet me if you have ideas – related to law and legal services.
Finally, a note about my blogs – which have been a bit infrequent in recent months as the day job took over. The hardest part of writing a blog is finding a suitable picture to accompany it. In 2021 I abandoned that model and decided to just use pictures of brutalist buildings. Why? Because I like them!
Seasons’ greetings and I really do hope to see you in 3D in 2022.
